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<title><string language="fre"><![CDATA[The Start and the End of Our Interglacial]]></string></title>
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<string language="fre"><![CDATA[The previous interglacial (Marine isotope stage 5e, peaking at 125 kyr BP) is usually assumed to be a good analogue for our present-day climate. Moreover, as our present interglacial, the Holocene, is already almost 12 kyr long, paleoclimatologists were inclined to predict a quite close entrance into the next ice age. Simulations using the 2.5-D climate model of Louvain-la- Neuve show however that our interglacial will most probably last much longer than any previous one, even without human intervention (Berger and Loutre, 2002). It was suggested that this is related to the shape of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun which will be almost circular over the next tens of thousands of years. A circular orbit means indeed that the latitudinal and seasonal distributions of the energy received from the Sun will not vary anymore, a situation which will give more weight to the other forcings, in particular to the forcing by the greenhouse gases. 
As the eccentricity variation is primarily related to the 400-kyr cycle, the best and closer analogue for such a forcing is definitively Marine isotopic Stage 11 (MIS-11) some 400 kyr ago and not MIS-5e. Simulations of this MIS-11 interglacial under greenhouse gas and astronomical forcings led indeed also to an anomalous length, a prediction which was later confirmed by the EPICA ice-core record. 
Such a relationship between CO2 and climate is at the basis of the claim by Ruddiman (2003) that the impact of human activities on climate might have already started 10,000 years ago, preventing our climate to have already entered into glaciation. Sensitivity experiments with the LLN model tend to rule out Ruddiman’s hypothesis because glacial inception in this model would require CO2 concentration below 240 ppmv during the Holocene. However, honest estimates of model uncertainties incline us to leave the question open (Crucifix and Berger, 2006). 
Our results show not only that the Holocene might last particularly long, but also that the sensitivity of our climate system to the greenhouse gas forcing might be exacerbated. It is therefore not surprising that, in our model at least, there is a threshold in the greenhouse gas concentration of about 700 ppmv beyond which the Greenland ice sheet melts in about 5000 years and does not recover before a few tens of thousands of years. 
All these results confirm that the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere plays an important role in shaping the long-term climatic variations and that a detailed reconstruction of the interglacials from land, deep-sea and ice records is urgently needed.]]></string></description>
<keyword><string language="fre"><![CDATA[économie]]></string></keyword><keyword><string language="fre"><![CDATA[Science de la Terre, Géoscience]]></string></keyword>
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NOTE:André Berger is Master of Science in Meteorology from M.I.T. (1971) and Doctor of Science from the Université catholique de Louvain (Belgium) (1973). He is Professor Emeritus, was Ordinary Professor and head of the Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics Georges Lemaître (1978-2001) at the Catholic University of Louvain where he lectured on meteorology and climate dynamics. He is doctor honoris causa from the University of Aix-Marseille III, the Université Paul Sabatier in Toulouse and the Faculté Polytechnique de Mons. He was C.R.B. graduate fellow of the Belgian American Educational Foundation (1970-71) and professor at the Vrij Universiteit Brussel and Université de Liège. He has been invited to lecture at 221 symposia and workshops and to give 125 seminars in different universities. He has been responsible for 77 research grants. He is member of the Academia Europaea, foreign member of the Koninklijke Nederlandse Akademie van Wetenschappen, membre associé étranger de l’Académie des Sciences de Paris, membre de l'Académie Nationale de l'Air et de l'Espace, membre de l’Académie royale des Sciences, des Lettres et des Beaux Arts de Belgique, foreign member of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, membre étranger de la Société royale du Canada and associate of the Royal Astronomical Society (London). He received the European Latsis Prize of the European Science Foundation in 2001, the Prix quinquennal A. De Leeuw-Damry-Bourlart of the Belgian National Funds for Scientific Research for 1991-1995, the Norbert Gerbier-Mumm International Award from the World Meteorological Organization in 1994, and the Milutin Milankovitch Medal from the European Geophysical Society in 1994.André Berger was chairman of both the International Climate and the International Paleoclimate Commissions. He was president of the European Geophysical Society and is Honorary President of the European Geo-Sciences Union. He is fellow of the American Geophysical Union. References : ·	Berger, A., 1977. Support for the astronomical theory of cli­matic change. Nature, 268, 44-45. ·	Berger, A., 1978. Long-term variations of caloric insolation resulting from the Earth's orbital elements. Quaternary Research, 9, 139-167.. ·	Berger, A., 1978. Long-term variations of daily insolation and Quaternary Climatic Changes. Journal of Atmospheric Science, 35(12), 2362-2367.. ·	Berger, A., 1988. Milankovitch Theory and Climate. Review of Geophysics, 26(4), pp. 624-657.. ·	Shackleton N.J., Berger A., Peltier W.R., 1990. An alternative astronomical calibration of the lower Pleistocene timescale based on ODP Site 677, Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh. Earth sciences, 81, 251 
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NOTE:Ancienne élève de l’Ecole du Louvre et boursière du Ministère français des Affaires Etrangères en 1999 pour ses études en DESS Relations Interculturelles, Jirasri DESLIS possède de multiples expériences au sein du Service Culturel de l’Ambassade de France à Bangkok et a également participé à l’élaboration de nombreux projets sur la mise en place des formations en ingénierie culturelle et muséologie. Titulaire d’un Mastère Spécialisé en Multimédia-Hypermédia (Télécom ParisTech & ENSBA) et d'un Master 2 Recherche en Anthropologie et Ethnologie (EHESS), Elle a participé à plusieurs projets en tant qu’infographiste, intégrateur et concepteur des systèmes d’information tels que le projet de l’E-learning du Conservatoire National des Arts et Métier et au Secrétariat de la Convention 2003 du Patrimoine Culturel Immatériel (UNESCO). Elle a été ingénieur d’études à l’ESCoM-FMSH et responsable du portail Atelier des Arkéonautes où elle a développé principalement les stratégies de communication via les réseaux sociaux ainsi que la conception graphique et fonctionnelle du nouveau portail ASA-SHS. Elle est actuellement IR à Télécom ParisTech. 
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